Award season is upon us and after delays due to the Hollywood strikes, we finally have the Emmys after a nearly 4 month delay. Since I’ve watched enough TV to have an opinion about the nominations, I will give my analysis and predictions for the Emmys. Before I get to looking at the nominees, I did want to offer some context that will hopefully be helpful to you.
The 75th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards will take place on Monday, January 15th on FOX. This year’s ceremony will be hosted by Anthony Anderson. Eligibility for the Emmys is decided on a case-by-case basis but the general window of eligibility for shows is June 1st, 2022 until May 31st, 2023. For this year’s awards, the Television Academy eliminated the “hanging episode” rule, which means the episode does need to air by May 31st.
Without further ado, we’ll go through the major categories:
Drama Series Nominations
Andor (Disney+)
Better Call Saul (HBO)
The Crown (Netflix)
House of the Dragon (Apple TV+)
The Last of Us (Netflix)
Succession (HBO)
The White Lotus (HBO)
Yellowjackets (Showtime)
2022 Winner: Succession (HBO)
This is a bit of a tough category to analyze. The White Lotus’ inclusion in this category complicates matters for HBO. Never in a million years would I have thought that Andor would make it to this point either, yet here we are. This cycle of the Emmys is chalked full of categories that are featuring legacy powerhouses that are sunsetting. This is also odd because for some of these shows it’s also been nearly 18 months since they’ve been on the air, a point that will come up frequently in my analysis.
In the end, Succession had the most consistent season and this is as close to a slam dunk as the Emmys can get. This awards ceremony awards legacy shows far more than a lot of the other awards ceremonies. Hence, Succession has the previous winning show, the final season of a show, and a lot of momentum narratives.
Prediction: Succession (HBO)
Outstanding Comedy Series
Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Barry (HBO)
The Bear (FX)
Jury Duty (Amazon Freevee)
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon Prime Video)
Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)
Wednesday (Netflix)
2022 Winner: Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)
As I wrote in the last paragraph, the Emmys tend to stick with their picks. The Outstanding Comedy Series category is different though because it also has two powerhouse newer shows that are itching to ascend to the Comedy Series mountain top. This race is between The Bear and Abbott Elementary and right now, The Bear has way too much momentum.
Prediction: The Bear (FX)
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
Beef (Netflix)
Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
Daisy Jones & the Six (Amazon Prime)
Fleishman is in Trouble (FX)
Obi-Wan Kenobi (Disney+)
2022 Winner: The White Lotus (HBO)
The absence of The White Lotus in this category leaves a giant void. It’s been over a long time for some of these shows not being part of the pop culture zeitgeist like Fleishman is in Trouble and Dahmer. That doesn’t mean either of them are contender but Dahmer did have a fair amount of momentum, as the Emmys also like true crime series. Objectively, Dahmer seems logical, but Beef has too much momentum right now for me to deny, especially after the sweep at the Golden Globes.
Prediction: Beef (Netflix)
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Jeff Bridges (The Old Man)
Brian Cox (Succession)
Kieran Culkin (Succession)
Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)
Pedro Pascal (The Last of Us)
Jeremy Strong (Succession)
2022 Winner: Lee Jung-jae (Squid Game)
Succession has shared a long history of awards coming their way for performances. As much as I want (and think he deserves recognition) Bob Odenkirk to win, this is Kieran Culkin’s award to lose, as his turn to an almost Joker-like character for Roman was a significant development for Culkin to master.
Prediction: Kieran Culkin (Succession)
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Sharon Horgan (Bad Sisters)
Melanie Lynskey (Yellowjackets)
Elizabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale)
Bella Ramsey (The Last of Us)
Keri Russell (The Diplomat)
Sarah Snook (Succession)
2022 Winner: Zendaya (Euphoria)
See the above but for Sarah Snook.
Prediction: Sarah Snook (Succession)
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Bill Hader (Barry)
Jason Segel (Shrinking)
Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building)
Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso)
Jeremy Allen White (The Bear)
2022 Winner: Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso)
Like last year with comedic actress, I’m going to make this perfectly clear. Jeremy Allen White takes this home. He’s been cleaning up EVERYTHING lately and The Bear season two sees so much growth for him as a character and a performer.
Prediction: Jeremy Allen White (The Bear)
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Christina Applegate (Dead to Me)
Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary)
Natasha Lyonne (Poker Face)
Jenna Ortega (Wednesday)
2022 Winner: Jean Smart (Hacks)
No Jean Smart leaves this category more open than it’s been in a long time. Quinta Brunson feels like the natural pick here, as it’s her time to assume her place on the comedic actress Emmys throne. A small part of me wants to pick Rachel Brosnahan though, even if it’s because of that unbelievable series finale performance. Being a coward is only cute in The Wizard of Oz, so you know what? I’m picking Brosnahan.
Prediction: Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Taron Egerton (Black Bird)
Kumail Nanjiani (Welcome to Chippendales)
Evan Peters (Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story)
Daniel Radcliffe (Weird: The Al Yankovic Story)
Michael Shannon (George & Tammy)
Steven Yeun (Beef)
2022 Winner: Michael Keaton (Dopesick)
Before this most recent award season, Evan Peters felt like the natural choice here. His turn as Jeffrey Dahmer was utterly terrifying. However, Steven Yeun’s performance in Beef is outstanding. My heart wants to go with Yeun, but Emmy voters I think will give this to Peters instead.
Prediction: Evan Peters (Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story)
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Lizzy Caplan (Fleishman is in Trouble)
Jessica Chastain (George & Tammy)
Dominique Fishback (Swarm)
Kathryn Hahn (Tiny Beautiful Things)
Riley Keough (Daisy Jones & the Six)
Ali Wong (Beef)
2022 Winner: Amanda Seyfried (The Dropout)
This is a really strong category. with really great performances. Dominique Fishback’s inclusion in this category is a welcome surprise because she was chilling in Swarm. This category boils down to whether or not Emmy voters saw Beef as the powerhouse that it is today when the nominations were announced SEVEN MONTHS AGO. Ali Wong though is the strongest performance here so she’s my pick.
Prediction: Ali Wong (Beef)
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
F. Murray Abraham (The White Lotus)
Nicholas Braun (Succession)
Michael Imperioli (The White Lotus)
Theo James (The White Lotus)
Matthew Macfadyen (Succession)
Alan Ruck (Succession)
Will Sharpe (The White Lotus)
Alexander Skargard (Succession)
2022 Winner: Matthew Macfadyen (Succession)
Looking for a repeat in this category for Matthew Macfadyen.
Prediction: Matthew Macfadyen (Succession)
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus)
Elizabeth Debicki (The Crown)
Meghann Fahy (The White Lotus)
Sabrina Impacciatore (The White Lotus)
Aubrey Plaza (The White Lotus)
Rhea Seehorn (Better Call Saul)
J. Smith-Cameron (Succession)
Simona Tabasco (The White Lotus)
2022 Winner: Julia Garner (Ozark)
Julia Garner’s reign for this category is officially over plus there’s a past winner here with Jennifer Coolidge. Elizabeth Debicki’s performance in The Crown was better in season six, which is ineligible this season. I’ll go with Coolidge to repeat for supporting actress but only in a drama series instead of an anthology series.
Prediction: Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus)
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Anthony Carrigan (Barry)
Phil Dunster (Ted Lasso)
Brett Goldstein (Ted Lasso)
James Marsden (Jury Duty)
Ebon Moss-Bachrach (The Bear)
Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary)
Henry Winkler (Barry)
2022 Winner: Brett Goldstein (Ted Lasso)
This is a stacked category with a lot of past winners and curtain calls for both Barry and Ted Lasso. Do I dare predict a Roy Kent hat trick for this award? My heart wants Ebon Moss-Bachrach to take this though.
Prediction: Ebon Moss-Bachrach (The Bear)
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
Ayo Edebiri (The Bear)
Janelle James (Abbott Elementary)
Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary)
Juno Temple (Ted Lasso)
Hannah Waddingham (Ted Lasso)
Jessica Williams (Shrinking)
2022 Winner: Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary)
In 10 years, will we have a series of Feud where Abbott Elementary and The Bear are duking it out for Emmy supremacy? This is a stacked category. As much as I want Jessica Williams, The Bear cleans up here.
Prediction: Ayo Edebiri (The Bear)
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Murray Bartlett (Welcome to Chippendales)
Paul Walter Hauser (Black Bird)
Richard Jenkins (Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story)
Joseph Lee (Beef)
Ray Liotta (Black Bird)
Young Mazino (Beef)
Jesse Plemons (Love & Death)
2022 Winner: Murray Bartlett (The White Lotus)
I didn’t think the supporting performances in Beef and Dahmer were nearly as good as the lead performances. Paul Walter Hauser was amazing in Black Bird and I think he takes this one home.
Prediction: Paul Walter Hauser (Black Bird)
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Annaleigh Ashford (Welcome to Chippendales)
Mario Bello (Beef)
Claire Danes (Fleishman is in Trouble)
Juliette Lewis (Welcome to Chippendales)
Camila Morrone (Daisy Jones & the Six)
Niecy Nash-Betts (Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story)
Merritt Weaver (Tiny Beautiful Things)
2022 Winner: Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus)
Niecy Nash-Betts had the awards momentum before so there’s nothing for me to suggest that she won’t take this home. Claire Danes gives me pause because of her breathtaking performance in Fleishman is in Trouble. My head though predicts Nash-Betts takes this.
Prediction: Niecy Nash-Betts (Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story)
I will have more reactions once the Emmys are announced in January. What are some of your predictions? Message me or comment to let me know your thoughts!
